As the US elections approach in November, concerns about a repeat of the fashion when Joe Biden was expected to be installed as the 46th US president are bubbling to the surface. Many fear the election result could lead to further violent protests.
More than 1,000 people were charged after January 6, 2021, many of whom had ties to the police or military.
What do you do if your nearest neighbor and superpower are heading toward civil war-like conditions?
The issue was examined by a committee of the Canadian Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau’s government, writes Policy.
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“Plunges the country into civil war”
In a report this spring entitled “Disruptions on the horizon» A small committee within the Canadian government known as Policy Horizons Canada raises the possibility of an American civil war as a scenario for which it should consider preparing.
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Hidden in the middle of the 37-page document, the opportunity is described in 15 simple words:
“America’s ideological divisions, democratic erosion and internal unrest are intensifying, plunging the country into civil war.”
John McArthur, a Brookings Institution scholar who serves on the Policy Horizons steering committee, said the report’s description of the American Civil War reflects the depth of Canadian concerns about American politics, rather than a concern literal with regard to an interstate war like that of 1861.
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He emphasized that he was speaking for himself and not for Policy Horizons.
– Deep concern
McArthur notes that the rise of American protectionism and isolationism under the Trump administration has shaken the Canadian psyche and its ancient economic ties. Donald Trump’s policies and personal behavior towards Canada – including smearing Trudeau after a previous G7 meeting in Quebec – have left a painful mark.
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– Any sense of disruption in your closest relations with the world, any disruption within this country, is, I think, of deep concern to any Canadian prospect. Canada’s place in the world has become more complex terrain to navigate, he says.
The credibility of the civil war scenario depends on how one defines civil war, McArthur believes.
The Policy Horizons report surveyed hundreds of experts and officials about what events Canada should be well prepared for. The authors then ranked these scenarios based on how likely they were to occur, how quickly they could occur, and how much devastation they could cause.
The American Civil War has been classified as an improbable but extremely impactful event.
“While it is not guaranteed that the ‘disruptions’ discussed in this report will occur, they are plausible – and ignoring them could lead to risks in various policy areas,” the report said. The report.
The commission emphasizes that the report does not represent the point of view of the Canadian authorities.
