Will Mette Frederiksen become the new head of NATO?

No one knows.

But most Danish commentators probably think she is now signalling, in a cryptic way, that she wants to succeed Jens Stoltenberg as NATO secretary general.

Rumours that a prime minister is running for a high-level international post may arise without actually being true.

But it probably also happens that rumors arise, precisely because they have a certain hold.

Some Danish commentators believe there may be some truth to these rumours, as they first appeared in Norwegian media.

The assumption is that the Norwegian media have more reliable sources than others, because it is Stoltenberg himself who wants Mette Frederiksen to take over, and this is something he must have spoken to Mette Frederiksen about.

In Denmark, emphasis is also placed on the fact that Frederiksen has been particularly active on the international scene in recent times.

There have been many trips and new billions of dollars have been allocated to Ukraine and defense at record speed.

Additionally, Frederiksen was invited to the White House, where she had a conversation with President Joe Biden that lasted much longer than expected. That’s usually a good sign.

The fact that Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, a member of the Moderates, seems a little angry and offended that she might be a candidate, reinforces the suspicion that she is. If the rumours about the candidacy were based on free imagination, it is likely that the Foreign Minister would have known about it.

But will she be the new head of NATO?

Mette Frederiksen is now spoken of very kindly in many countries.

She is seen as a strong and unifying leader, and will eventually become the first female NATO commander. What speaks against her is that she wants to succeed a Dane and a Norwegian, and so there will be a few too many Nordics. On the other hand, there is no obvious counter-candidate.

Any nomination will already take place at the NATO summit in Vilnius on July 11. This will not be done by a vote, but by the agreement of all member states. And if the election goes to Mette Frederiksen, Jens Stoltenberg could return home to Norway in October, as he has said he wants to.

And what will happen in Danish politics then?

This is not obvious.

Mette Frederiksen leads her SVM government – which represents the Social Democrats, the Left and the Moderates – that is, an “above-the-middle” government with red and blue parties.

The government has great ambitions, but it has not got off to a good start. The Social Democrats and the Liberals have sunk like stones in the polls. The parties of Mette Frederiksen and Jonas Gahr Støre are doing about as badly.

There are many reasons, including the fact that the government has eliminated a day of leave. But it has also run into difficulties because the deputy prime minister, who is also the defence minister and leader of the Liberal Party, has been on sick leave and stress relief for more than four months.

His return is scheduled for August 1, but he risks being censored because of a case he dealt with before falling ill.

The relationship between the prime minister and the foreign minister, Lars Løkke Rasmussen, himself a former prime minister, also seems demanding. Løkke meddles in “everything” and appears almost, according to some commentators, as the spiritual leader of the government.

So what would happen if Mette Frederiksen became NATO chief?

Will Finance Minister Nicolai Wammen or Justice Minister Peter Hummelgaard, both Social Democrats, take over and become Prime Minister? Or is Lars Løkke Rasmussen trying to manoeuvre to become Prime Minister? Or should new elections be printed?

Lars Løkke Rasmussen is said to dislike the idea of ​​Mette Frederiksen becoming NATO chief, as she is needed to keep the SVM government afloat. He believes that the “government above the middle” is her and her project, and that no one should run away from the project so soon after the elections.

Some also think he is a bit angry, because he himself hopes to get a top international job as Denmark’s next European Commissioner. It may not be a good idea for Mette Frederiksen to leave the country as well.

In any case, just find some popcorn, because here there can be even more drama in Danish politics!

But then: it is not certain that Mette Frederiksen will become the new head of NATO in Vilnius.

It is of course possible that the commentators are wrong and that she has no desire to leave Danish politics.

It is more likely that NATO countries will fail to agree on Frederiksen’s appointment and the matter will be postponed until 2024, when NATO will celebrate its 75th anniversary. In that case, Stoltenberg will have to settle for a few more months, and he has probably considered this possibility for a long time.

Most believe that Mette Frederiksen will then have to abandon her candidacy. Remaining a potential candidate for months, while being Prime Minister, is almost impossible. Everything and everyone revolves around him, and this is a situation that cannot last too long.

But will she win or lose because she was a kind of candidate?

Most people think she will win.

She has received a lot of positive attention and now appears as a well-known and appreciated politician on the international stage. This is an advantage both for her own authority and for Denmark.

And while it has not yet been agreed that Lars Løkke Rasmussen will become the next European Commissioner, she could become one herself.