20 years after Recep Tayyip Erdogan (69) became Turkey’s strongman, he will be challenged harder on Sunday than he has been in many years.

Six parties have come together in a – for Turkey – rare alliance, with Kemal Kilicdaroglu (74) as Erdogan’s opponent.

The stakes are high, like relations with Russia, NATO and Sweden.

But above all the economy. This does not sit well with the current president.

– The economy is the biggest problem for Erdogan, says Professor Einar Wigen, a specialist in Turkey at the University of Oslo.

Onions and potatoes

What he is referring to in particular is inflation, which last year was over 80%. It is still cloudy, although the situation at the moment is a little less dramatic.

For the opposing candidate Kilicdaroglu, the economy is hardly necessary to evoke. It helps people see prices in stores.

“It’s in the background of everything people do all the time,” Wigen said.

Whether that’s enough to decide the election is still unclear.

– Erdogan said that “you don’t drop your boss for onions and potatoes, do you?” Wigen says.

He thinks many in the current president’s constituency will listen to this argument.

Another bad case for Erdogan is the earthquake three months ago, with many blaming him for his mismanagement.

A pinch of salt

A little towards the end of the evening of Sunday, it is the polemic on the figures of the votes whereas the counting progresses.

While authorities have reported a lead of up to 25 percentage points over incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, opposition sources claim that instead Kemal Kilicdaroglu is the leader.

The mayor of Ankara, Mansur Yavas, who is a candidate for a ministerial post in a possible new government, maintains that Kilicdaroglu is the leader, since 23.87% of the votes were counted.

Wigen takes the fact that some late afternoon opinion polls were positive for Erdogan – based on 9.1% of votes counted – with a big pinch of salt.

– It’s far too early, and I’m skeptical about Turkish opinion polls, he said, adding that there was a good turnout.

He thinks it’s to Kilicdaroglu’s advantage. The reason for this is that many young voters are inclined to stay at home, and they vote overwhelmingly for the opposition.

Those who vote for Erdogan characterize Wigen as “conservative” voters in the cities, people who often have rural roots.

– Erdogan’s electoral success over the past 25 years is largely based on people moving from the countryside to the cities, says Wigen.

– Less horse haggling

He describes the difference between the two candidates as follows: Kilicdaroglu will try to create an alliance and try to be a president for everyone, while Erdogan will be president for those who voted for him.

Over time, he also believes the outside world will notice a marked difference if Kilicdaroglu becomes the new president.

– First and foremost by the fact that policy is not formulated by the President meeting with Vladimir Putin, but by the fact that the Turkish foreign service and diplomacy are allowed to formulate foreign policy intended to benefit Turkey .

For Sweden’s NATO membership, he thinks a change of president is good news.

– I think Kilicdaroglu will probably drop objections to Swedish membership, because he doesn’t want to use this kind of conflict as a bargaining chip. We’ll likely see a more unified foreign policy and less horse-trading, Wigen says.

– Can print new elections

In recent days, many have wondered whether the increasingly authoritarian Erdogan would respect an election defeat – to which he himself answered with a snorting yes.

Wigen has more doubts.

– If the result of the election raises all doubt, it is probably difficult for him to ignore it, but in a situation of doubt it is he who has the abyss and the two ends.

– So what can he do?

– I think there are two possibilities, says Wigen, and says one is that he declares himself the winner before the results are counted, like Fox News did with George W. Bush in the election Americans in 2000.

– The other is that he finds a certain technicality as a justification for calling new elections immediately, says Einar Wigen.

Should the sultan abdicate?