A military exercise between neighboring Russia and Belarus has been launched on the territory of the latter. This created fear in Ukraine and the West that a new Russian ground offensive could be launched, writes NTB and The Guardian.

The exercise will last until February 1 and will include patrols in the airspace on the Belarusian border, as well as air support for ground troops.

This is reported by the independent Russian newspaper Jellyfishciting the Belarusian Defense Ministry.

The Belarusian Security Council says the exercise is defensive and focuses on reconnaissance and defense.

When the invasion of Ukraine began on February 24, several Russian troops were sent to Ukraine from Belarus. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko, often referred to as “Europe’s last dictator”, have met several times since the full-scale invasion began in February.

When the attacks on Ukraine began, Russia and Belarus had recently held a joint military exercise.

Since then, Belarus has been Russia’s ally in Europe and Vladimir Putin has met Lukashenko several times. The close contact between the two allies has also led to speculation over whether Belarus will take a more active role on the battlefield in Ukraine.

– You don’t have many choices

Russian researcher Jakub M. Godzimirski of NUPI believes that the military exercise between the two countries reflects a broader picture of Belarus and Alexander Lukashenko’s position in Europe.

– Two and a half years ago, Belarus saw mass protests against the regime, as many believed this was proof that Lukashenko had lost the election. The protests were crushed by the Belarusian regime, with good help from Russia, Godzimirski tells Dagbladet.

Power struggle in Putin’s circle:
– Incompetent

Protests in Belarus were halted, but also led to Lukashenko becoming dependent on Russia and Vladimir Putin.

– Nobody from the West wanted to talk to him. He doesn’t have many choices. It must in many ways meet a number of Russian demands and expectations, including making Belarusian military territory available to Russia, Godzimirski said.

He goes on to say that it is nothing new for Russia and Belarus to join forces for a military exercise. He points out that the countries have had an agreement since 1996 that they will work together in areas of security policy.

– This is nothing new or surprising. There were also military exercises in January and February 2022, which were the prelude to the February 24 invasion, Godzimirski says.

He also says the military exercise could raise fears that a Russian and Belarusian military campaign against Ukraine is developing.

– Some fear that we could try to use zones to cut Ukraine off from aid coming from the West. The exercise also allows Russia, and partly Belarus, to better understand the situation.

– Unlikely

Retired Lieutenant General Arne Bård Dalhaug says the main conclusion from multiple sources is that an attack by Belarus on the Ukrainian capital Kyiv is highly unlikely.

– I tend to think that such an attack is unlikely, said Dalhaug to Dagbladet.

This opinion is also shared by the reflection group Institute for the Study of War (ISW). In December, they wrote that it is extremely unlikely that Belarus will invade Ukraine in the foreseeable future, but that Russia will nevertheless try to create the impression that Belarus will.

When war broke out on February 24, Russian forces came from Belarus and Russia. But in March, Russian authorities announced they would focus on Donbass in eastern Ukraine, a region annexed by Russia in October.

Ukraine’s will to resist has also been strong, and fighting is now taking place in eastern and southern Ukraine. Belarus is located north of Ukraine, so it can be very difficult to send new Belarusian soldiers.

– If Russia wants to do this, then they have to establish a new supply line. From Russia to Belarus, then to Ukraine, says Dalhaug.

Dalhaug thinks there could be two reasons why the two countries should hold a joint military exercise.

– One could be that they want to keep threats of attacks from Belarusian territory as well as training forces that can be sent to Donbass (eastern Ukraine, journ.amn.), says Dalhaug.

– Never static

Dalhaug also says that one of Russia’s goals could be for Ukrainian forces stationed north of kyiv to stay. The Ukrainian capital is located just over 100 kilometers south of the border with Belarus.

Since Ukraine must maintain its forces there, in the event of an attack by Belarus, the forces cannot be sent to the Donbass where the fighting is currently taking place.

Putin’s Great Disaster

– If the possibilities of attack had been nil, these forces would have been sent to Donbass a long time ago, says Dalhaug, and adds:

– It is never a static situation. If Ukraine withdraws its forces a lot from areas north of kyiv, or withdraws them altogether, then the likelihood of an attack begins to increase, Dalhaug says.

He does not believe Ukraine will take action in the form of moving its military forces or air defense as a result of the exercise.

– I don’t think Ukraine will do anything special. They have what they think is sufficient strength, north of kyiv. Air defense is more important around kyiv than near the border with Belarus, says Dalhaug.