Barely six weeks before the NATO summit in Vilnius, it is still unclear who will succeed Jens Stoltenberg as president.
– It’s starting to get a little urgent. So it’s getting tighter and tighter, Nina Græger, professor of international politics and head of department at the University of Copenhagen, tells NTB.
Speculation is rife as to whether Stoltenberg’s successor will be Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen. Frederiksen was in Washington on Monday where she had a long meeting with the President of the United States.
So far, she has denied being a candidate for NATO’s top posts and stressed that she is happy to be prime minister of Denmark.
– But if you urgently ask him to get up, it’s difficult to say no. Then, I don’t think she will let domestic political considerations weigh as much. And Denmark is not plunged into an internal political crisis, Græger believes.
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The cards on the chest
She tries to follow the process closely, but it’s not easy. NATO is keeping its cards very close to its chest this time.
– NATO is more closed than before on this issue. The situation we find ourselves in probably means that less information is circulating. I don’t think we’ll know anything until the case is settled and ready, says Græger.
This week, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will also visit Washington, where he will, among other things, try to promote the candidacy of his own Defense Minister Ben Wallace, writes Reuters.
At a press conference on Monday, Sunak stressed that Wallace was “fantastic”.
– He is admired by his colleagues around the world. The UK has always been a major contributor to NATO and has met the 2% target. We have led NATO operations and are seen as a leading thinker, he said.
More candidates
Græger, for his part, doubts that Wallace will be offered the post of NATO chief.
– The United States and Great Britain have very close ties. But the fact that the British are no longer in the EU makes things more complicated, she says, pointing out that in recent years the EU and NATO have cooperated more and more closely.
Other possible candidates for NATO chief include Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas. The advantage of the latter is that she is a woman, but the disadvantage is that she is from the Baltics and has been quite harsh on Russia at times.
– In Russia, this will be seen as a kick in the side. So unless NATO wants to send a strong signal, it could stay a little longer, says Græger.
Kallas himself says in a medicine BBC that it is “highly unlikely” that he will be offered the position.
Rutte, for his part, insisted he did not want to become NATO chief. Von der Leyen too.
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The chair of the Norwegian Atlantic Committee, Kate Hansen Bundt, does not want to speculate on names, but says many things need to be put in place within NATO’s cabal of senior leaders. Among the most important criteria are geographical conditions and political weight, she explains to NTB.
-How important is it that she becomes a woman?
– There are probably other criteria that come first. A secretary general must find compromises between very strong wills and different geopolitical points of view. Diplomatic sensitivity is probably very important, believes Hansen Bundt.
– How likely is NATO to agree on a candidate before Vilnius?
– This should happen before Vilnius. Otherwise, there is a good chance that Stoltenberg will remain in office until April next year. But I think the chances of that happening are very low, says Hansen Bundt.
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For his part, Græger points out that Jens Stoltenberg’s use of words has changed a bit recently.
– He no longer says “no, no, no” in another position. And in an ongoing war, it’s an advantage to have a NATO commander who knows the situation well, she said.
Hansen Bundt also points out that in next summer’s European elections a new EU President, a new Foreign Minister and a new President of the European Commission will be elected.
– It is conceivable that these things are considered in context, she says and suggests that there could be haggling over the top positions within NATO and the EU.
(©NTB)
