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The curtain has fallen. The Moscow theater is finished. Here’s what – probably – really happened.
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The Chinese President Xi Jinping left Moscow on Wednesday morning after a long and intense two-day meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. With the grand ballrooms of the Moscow Kremlin as a backdrop, the two were delighted with themselves and – apparently – with each other. They supported the other’s global worldview that an aggressive US and West must be fought and enforced. And Xi pushed his “peace plan” for Ukraine, which Putin said contained a lot of good, “when the West and Kiev are ready”, as he put it.
Now you have to take the minutes of these meetings with at least a pinch of salt. Because when the two main autocrats of the globe meet, you have to live with the representation of the world which is only sufficiently precise. After all, it is much more in the nature of autocracies to match the terrain to the map than it is in democracies. And that if the ground – that is, the people – begins to move, then the autocrats must acquire new ground – that is, the people. Because it is absolutely crucial for autocrats that the terrain matches the map.
Warns: – Obliged to react
And when it counts for example Ukraine, the map looks like this: China is launching itself as a peace broker in Ukraine with its 12-point peace plan. The plan calls for dialogue, respect for the sovereign territory of all countries and an end to all economic sanctions. Xi stresses that he makes himself available as an impartial and balanced peace broker.
Then in the field: With its failed invasion attempt, Russia grossly violated the territory of Ukraine. The purpose of the war was to destroy Ukraine as a nation, the real justification being that those living in the country are actually Russians, they just don’t realize it themselves. But the Chinese peace proposal makes no mention of Russia’s withdrawal from the territory it occupies, even though Putin undoubtedly disrespected Ukraine’s sovereign territory. So much for the map and the terrain.
The words of farewell cause a sensation
But there is more. Xi Jinping calls Putin “a dear friend”. It is a truth with major modifications. Because he’s more of a friend of convenience. And for Putin, Xi is an absolutely necessary friend. The term “dear friend” is rather something that belongs to the adventures, in this case “the map”, as we have defined it.
Because in reality Putin is a guaranteed war criminal, someone hardly anyone wants as a “dear friend”. Probably not Xi either, Putin is probably referred to more as a friend of convenience. Putin is comfortable despite all his idiosyncrasies, which have so far resulted in the invasion of Ukraine, which China also sees as a big mistake.
in the ideology and the historic showdown with the United States and the West, which virtually everyone sees coming, Xi needs Russia in his own half. Not so much because of the economy, which is the size of Spain or the Netherlands. And not so much more because of the military force, which is surprisingly much worse than anyone imagined. But because so much of the geography – Russia is, after all, the biggest country in the world filled with oil and gas – provides good back cover in a troubled world.
After Xi’s visit in Moscow, we return to a new cold war. But it is only partially similar to the previous one. This cold war contains elements of “containment” of the West – sounding – of its adversaries, sanctions against Russia and trade restrictions against China. But where Putin is still waging the old cold war, to reclaim “lost” Soviet territory, Xi is waging a new cold war to wrest global dominance from the United States and challenge the universal values of the West, the ones we tried to hang on to since the French Revolution. Xi and Putin have the same goal, but different motivations
And this is what they looked like, the two autocrats, together in Moscow. Xi was the commanding and confident, while Putin was the stumbling, nervous host who didn’t know what good he could do for his powerful guest. No “dear friend” in the yard. But an executive and his client who exchanged polite phrases in amorous metaphors.