LARVIK-SANDEFJORD-FÆRDER-TØNSBERG-HORTEN (VG) Vestfold stands again as a separate county and there is an overwhelming majority of municipal elections. Election analysts say the sunglasses effect may contribute to this.

– A blue wind is blowing over Vestfold. Opinion polls are very positive and the mood is good so I think Vestfold will become a blue county, said Tory leader Erna Solberg.

She drove through Vestfold on Saturday and in Tønsberg gathered five of the six Conservative Party mayoral candidates in the county.

Ap now has four out of six mayors in Vestfold municipalities.

– Fixed blue in the six municipalities?

– Yes, it’s inspiring to fight for it.

VG has taken local measurements in all six counties of Vestfold and a blue trend is blowing across the county:

• In Larvik, the Conservative Party has gone from 19.7 percent in the last election to 27.8 percent today.
• They have a clear majority with FRP and a large majority with KrF and Venstre.
• The same trend is found in Tønsberg, which has an Ap mayor. The Conservative Party has fallen from 26.1 to 36.9 since the last election and the Labor Party has fallen from 26.8 to 21.3 and the bourgeois majority is wide.
• In Færder – formerly Nøtterøy and Tjøme – the Conservative Party holds a whopping 43.4 percent, down from 26.2 in the 2019 election – the bourgeois majority is wide in a municipality that now has a Labor mayor.

To find out more about the situation in the six municipalities, click here:

County dissolved

Solberg enjoyed the summer sun in Tønsberg on Saturday.

– Vestfold has traditionally been a county where we have been strong, but when it comes to municipal mergers the balances have been slightly different, she says:

– The measurements show that we have to do something, said Solberg optimistically.

Telemark and Vestfold have been one county since January 1, 2020. But from January 1, 2024 the greater county splits and the two counties are re-established.

After the municipal mergers, there are currently only six municipalities left in Vestfold.

Exciting in Horten

Election analyst Svein Tore Marthinsen looked at developments in the country’s 50 largest municipalities.

– I agree that there is a blue trend across Vestfold. Especially Sandefjord, but also Larvik and Tønsberg are now all light blue. They seem to be heading in a blue direction if the current situation doesn’t change much until the election, he says.

– Færder and Holmestrand are also going in the same direction. But at Horten, I maintain a button on the red-greens, says Marthinsen.

– Sunglasses effect

In the Gjengangeren poll at the end of May, Rødt had 9.6 percent, down from 7 percent in local elections four years ago – and the red-green majority is 22 to 19 mandates. Marthinsen says there is an element of uncertainty.

– There is a red-green lead of two percentage points. The effect of the sunglasses could kick in and set the stage for Horten to turn blue as well, but it’s hard to say anything for sure today.

The sunglasses effect he refers to occurs if support for Rødt declines due to a loss of confidence among voters after Bjørnar Moxnes had to resign due to the sunglasses he took with him. in Gardermoen.

– The sunglasses effect can turn Vestfold completely blue?

– I say it may take effect, but we currently don’t know anything for sure. So far, the national trend in measures has not resulted in a major decline for Rødt.

Can become doubly historic

In Larvik, Conservative Party candidate for mayor Birgitte Løken has now declared a solid majority.

– There is currently a clear majority for the Conservative Party and the FRP. In addition, we want broad citizen cooperation which also includes KrF and Venstre, she says and adds:

– If we become bigger than Ap, it will be the first time. And if I become mayor, I will be the first woman. I hope I can write history.

In Sandefjord, Bjørn Ole Gleditsch has been mayor of Sandefjord for 20 years and is running for a new term.

Høyre, Frp and KrF have a small majority in the latest poll, in addition the SP is present with two mandates.

– We have a good tradition of working with more parties than necessary to achieve a majority. We have had good cooperation with Sp over time and hope that will continue, says Gleditsch.

Ap: – We will do our best

In the Labor Party, it is emphasized that no victory can be taken in advance.

Horten Mayor and Ap County mayoral candidate Are Karlsen says they will do their part to prevent Vestfold from being colored blue after the 9/11 municipal elections.

– I have a relaxed relationship with the measures. Skies are pretty blue across the county right now, but we’ll do our best during the campaign trail and then it’s up to voters to decide.

He says he doesn’t like expressions like fight and fight.

– It’s a matter of politics. We need to tell voters what we stand for and what they will get by voting for us. Then the voters decide. And he will live well with whatever outcome the voters arrive at.

I don’t believe in the sunglasses effect

Leader Alf Henriksen in Rødt in Horten says they have never gotten a result as good as 9.6 before and he feels they should be able to get it in the elections as well.

– I think an important reason is that the municipal economy is so bad that people realize that we need to introduce a property tax, as we and Sp have been advocating. When we risk closing local schools and nursing homes and people react to that.

He doesn’t think they will be affected by the effect of the sunglasses.

– I’m not afraid of the glasses problem. Must show up until the last day of the election campaign to ensure a good election in our city.