The counter-offensive announced by Ukraine will be decisive for the course of the war in 2024, according to researcher Karsten Friis of the Norwegian Institute of Foreign Policy (Nupi).

On the first anniversary of the Russian invasion, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov confirms plans for a new push to drive out Russian forces.

– There will be a counter-offensive. We are working hard to prepare and secure it, he said in a speech to Ukrainian soldiers.

Principal researcher Karsten Friis is confident that the plans will be realized.

– There will certainly be a Ukrainian offensive in the spring. It will be very, very important, he tells NTB.

– Ukraine is completely dependent on a bit of momentum, both for its own morale and to continue to receive Western support, he adds.

Tanks on the way

It is therefore likely that spring and summer will be decisive for the development of the war that Russia is waging against its neighbor.

A number of Western countries will send German-made Leopard tanks to Ukraine, and it is believed that they will be in place within months. Germany, Poland, Spain, Denmark and Norway are on the list of countries that will send tanks, and the first Polish tanks have already arrived.

Iver B. Neumann, director of the Fridtjof Nansen Institute (FNI) and former professor of Russian studies at the University of Oslo, sees a clear trend in Western arms aid.

– Every time Russia intervened, the West provided more arms assistance, he tells NTB.

– This pattern will continue, says Neumann, who believes that Western countries will continue to avoid playing a more attacking role.

– Doesn’t add much

The situation on the battlefield right now is that it is Russia that is launching “some kind of offensive”, according to Friis.

– But they don’t do much.

Friis’ impression is that Russia is now sending infantry directly to Ukrainian defense positions, resulting in a high death toll. Ukraine says the Russians are losing between 500 and 1,000 soldiers every day.

After a year of war, Friis does not believe that Russia has enough weapons and tanks to conquer large new areas. A more relevant question is therefore whether Ukraine can achieve this.

If the Ukrainians don’t succeed in their announced counter-offensive this year, Friis thinks it will look “pretty ugly”. Then there is a situation where the war stops.

Frozen conflict?

Such a scenario could be likely, according to Neumann. He believes that it will be extremely difficult for Ukraine to liberate all of its territory – especially the Crimean peninsula – and that the conflict will eventually subside with a ceasefire.

In such a situation, Ukraine will be unhappy because it was not able to liberate the whole country. The Russians will be unhappy because they could not conquer more.

– I find it hard to see that there can be a peace agreement. That leaves us with a conflict that neither side will win militarily, says Neumann, who calls it a frozen conflict.

The FNI director says Russian leaders are generally happy to have frozen conflicts in their immediate areas. Then the conflict level can be increased or decreased as needed.

To this day, there are frozen conflicts linked to the breakaway regions of Moldova and Georgia controlled by Russia.

According to China

At the same time that Russia has used vast amounts of weapons and materiel in the war, the country still sits on the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons in the world.

Neither Friis nor Neumann think these are likely to be used, as Russia has little to gain and the reaction from the United States and the West is likely to be very strong.

Friis says Russia has threatened to use nuclear weapons since the start of the invasion, and it’s still something that needs to be taken seriously. He believes it is important that China has clearly stated that the use of nuclear weapons is out of the question.

Along with Western countries isolating Russia with sanctions, Russians have become much more dependent on China.

According to Neumann, the war could lead to Russia losing its major power status and instead having to rely on a future as China’s alliance partner.